Texas has been building toward something for three years now. Recently, College Football News laid out exactly what stands between the Longhorns and a national title shot in 2026. CFN's Pete Fiutak put it directly in his 2026 Texas preview.

"Texas has the talent, the coaching staff, and he has a potential transcendent quarterback talent as Arch Manning comes into his own," Fiutak wrote on July 19.

Texas has been good enough to deserve better results for two straight years.

"Texas will keep on being great. First, get to at least ten wins and get into the tournament, and this might just be the year that the right breaks come." Fiutak added in his July 19 CFN article.

That's both a compliment and a warning. According to Fiutak, just being good enough isn't the same as being good enough to win it all.

In his first year as the starter, Manning threw for 3,163 yards and 26 touchdowns. Seven interceptions. 10 more scores on the ground. The tape was good. His two rough outings just happened to come against the best defenses on the schedule.

Going into 2026, Manning is the second biggest name in the Heisman race at plus-750. Only Notre Dame QB CJ Carr is ahead of him right now. The expectations this year are different from last year, though. Manning has also addressed the pressure himself.

"I'm not going to shy away from anything," he told On3 Sports heading into this season. "Criticism does not affect my focus."

The weapons around him are genuinely better this season, with wide receiver Cam Coleman arriving from Auburn after 93 catches, over 1,300 yards, and 13 touchdowns across two seasons.

Meanwhile, Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown bring combined 2,000-plus rushing yards from their respective programs. The offensive line also added Melvin Siani from Wake Forest to protect Manning's blind side.

CFN's prediction is 10-2. The schedule is the main obstacle. Texas faces Ohio State in Week 2, then Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M in the back half of the season.

The running game is the biggest question mark for Texas in 2026

Texas ran for just 138 yards per game last season. That is down from 159 in 2024 and well off the nearly 200 they were averaging in 2021 and 2022, per CFN.

The wins followed the ground game last year. When Texas rushed for more than 55 yards, they went 9-1. The only loss in that group was to Ohio State.

Smothers and Brown are the answer to that problem on paper. Smothers went for over 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns at NC State in his best season.

If the run game works, Manning doesn't have to be perfect every week. That's exactly the formula Texas needs with a schedule as brutal as theirs.

Do you think Arch Manning and Texas have what it takes to win a national championship in 2026? Let us know in the comments.

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Written by

Farheen Fathima

Edited by

Arundhoti Palit